AI Could Affect 40% of Global Jobs, IMF Chief Warns

By Atlantic Reports

Artificial intelligence could affect about 40 per cent of jobs worldwide, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has said, urging governments to prepare workers through education reforms, skills development and investment in essential infrastructure.

Speaking on Monday at the 2026 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, Georgieva described AI as a “slow-moving tsunami” that could enhance some jobs, diminish others or eliminate them.

The estimate concerns jobs exposed to AI-driven change, rather than a prediction that 40 per cent of employment will disappear.

During a panel discussion on small-scale AI and employment, she said IMF estimates put exposure at about 60 per cent of jobs in advanced economies and 23 per cent in low-income countries.

Lower exposure in poorer economies, she explained, reflected slower adoption of the technology rather than stronger protection against its effects.

Investment now, wider adoption next

Georgieva said AI was already generating investment and demand through data centre construction and the development of AI models.

She identified the United States, China and India as major AI-producing economies, with several Asian countries, including Thailand, contributing to the infrastructure supporting the technology.

According to her, those investments were helping sustain global economic growth at about three per cent despite pressures from energy supply shocks.

However, she said the next phase would depend on wider adoption, giving more countries an opportunity to benefit if they established the necessary foundations.

For developing economies, these included reliable electricity, digital infrastructure, appropriate skills and government safeguards to support safe and inclusive use.

Georgieva cited IMF estimates suggesting that AI could add between 0.5 and one percentage point to growth in advanced Asian economies, and between 0.2 and 0.8 percentage points in emerging Asian economies.

She said an additional percentage point of growth could more than offset economic losses associated with rapidly ageing populations in advanced Asian economies. These estimates represent potential gains, rather than outcomes already achieved.

Entry-level workers face pressure

On employment, Georgieva cited an IMF study in the United States indicating that about 10 per cent of jobs already required advanced AI skills, with those positions generally offering higher pay.

At the same time, she said routine and repetitive jobs were declining, while lower-paying employment was expanding in areas such as data centre construction and services.

Although the study found a positive net employment effect in the areas examined, she cautioned that the concentration of new opportunities in lower-paying work made the picture less encouraging.

Young people entering the labour market were particularly vulnerable, she said, because routine entry-level roles traditionally offered a route to gaining experience and progressing professionally.

Georgieva urged governments to monitor employment trends, promote lifelong learning and reconsider tax policies as AI changes the relationship between labour and capital.

She warned that greater reliance on capital, alongside reduced demand for human labour, could weaken government revenue and constrain public support for workers adapting to technological change.

Her preferred outcome, she said, was for AI to remove undesirable tasks while enabling higher productivity, better living standards and meaningful participation in society.

“Get AI to do all the stuff we don’t want to do and let us enjoy the things we love to do.”

Singapore calls for stronger routes into work

Singapore’s President Tharman Shanmugaratnam said AI-driven displacement would unfold gradually, task by task, creating opportunities for workers and employers to adapt through workplace learning.

However, he expressed concern about declining demand for entry-level workers, particularly in technology-related sectors.

He urged governments to work with businesses to create opportunities for graduates, arguing that a first job was essential to building skills, experience and confidence.

Shanmugaratnam also called for tertiary education reforms that would expand practical training, internships, workplace attachments and partnerships between universities and employers, while reducing excessive emphasis on academic qualifications.

With future workplace demands still uncertain, he said education systems needed to combine specialised expertise with broader human skills and remain flexible enough to respond to change.

Atlantic Reports: Voices. People. Facts.