Annual Dementia Cases Could Reach 24.7 Million by 2050, Study Estimates

 

By Atlantic Reports

An estimated 11.4 million people worldwide developed dementia in 2023, with annual new cases projected to rise to 24.7 million by 2050, according to an Australian-led international study.

Researchers at the Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing (CHeBA), University of New South Wales, analysed data from 38,418 people across 22 population-based studies in 18 countries and territories.

The research, published in JAMA Neurology, provides estimates of dementia incidence, meaning the frequency of new cases, according to a statement released by the centre on Tuesday.

The projected 24.7 million figure concerns people expected to develop dementia each year by 2050. It is distinct from the total number living with the condition.

Higher rates in lower-income countries

The study reported an incidence rate of 13.6 cases per 1,000 person-years in low- and middle-income countries, compared with 8.3 in high-income countries.

Person-years measure the combined time participants were observed. For example, 1,000 people followed for one year contribute 1,000 person-years.

Senior author and CHeBA Co-Director Prof. Perminder Sachdev said the findings raised concerns about the capacity of lower-income countries to respond.

“The higher incidence we observed in low- and middle-income countries is particularly concerning because these regions are experiencing rapid population ageing while often having the fewest resources for prevention, diagnosis and care,” he said.

The supplied account did not provide country-specific estimates for Nigeria, so the pooled findings should not be treated as a measured Nigerian incidence rate.

Differences between women and men

Researchers found higher dementia incidence among women, at 10.6 cases per 1,000 person-years, compared with 8.6 among men.

However, the study did not establish why rates differed by sex or national income level. Researchers said the differences could reflect a combination of health, social, economic, educational and environmental factors.

The findings therefore identify patterns without demonstrating their causes.

Dementia is a syndrome involving a decline in memory, thinking and other cognitive abilities severe enough to interfere with everyday activities. It is associated with diseases including Alzheimer’s disease.

Growing demand for care

According to the supplied account, more than 57 million people currently live with dementia worldwide. Earlier research projected that the total could reach about 150 million by 2050.

Both the annual new-case estimate and the projected total point to growing demand for diagnosis, care and support for families. They remain estimates, rather than certain future outcomes.

The study highlights the importance of preparing health and social care systems for that demand, particularly where services are already limited.

Atlantic Reports: Voices. People. Facts.